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Hur stort är egentligen valdeltagandet bland antivaxxare och third party-väljare som misstror etablissemanget? Trump mobiliserade dessa grupper tidigare, men det är ytterst tveksamt om han kan upprepa den bedriften. RFK Jr:s bana i racet är förvisso småintressant att granska, dock finns inget där som tyder på att något skulle hindra honom från att rasa ner till fullkomligt irrelevanta nivåer. Än mindre går det att se i datan hur han skulle kunna lyfta Trump genom att injicera fler konstigheter i kampanjen. Det är små, små rörelser som han står för i dag, visst, men gissningsvis kommer det sluta med att han överträffar Vance i negativ bemärkelse och skrämmer bort kärnväljare.
We [538] collected all of the Harris-Trump polls that have been conducted since July 21 and included both two-way and multiple-candidate questions on presidential support. Then, we aggregated support for each candidate at the demographic group level using the published crosstabs for these polls, where available, and looked at how the margin between Harris and Trump differed within each of these groups when Kennedy was or was not included in the question.
When Kennedy is absent from surveys, support for Harris rises most among Asian, Black and Hispanic voters, as well as with nonwhite voters without college degrees and young voters. Trump, meanwhile, consolidates support with men, white and rural voters, and voters over 30. That means Trump is best situated to capitalize on Kennedy's endorsement among the groups already friendliest to both of them.
Our model tells us that support for Harris is 1.3 percentage points higher in polls testing support only for Harris and Trump than in polls where Kennedy is included. In comparison, Trump's support is 1.5 percentage points higher in two-way polls than when voters get the third-party option. Adding it up, this suggests that Kennedy's presence in the race is drawing slightly more support away from Trump and increasing Harris's margin by about 0.2 percentage points on average across the states.
https://abcnews.go.com/538/momentum-...y?id=113111150
Ja men både du och ABC struntar helt i det viktigaste, att Kennedy endorsar Trump nu, de gjorde han inte innan.