Harris vs. Trump: opinionsundersökningar

2020 Elections, AtlasIntel, The Cyber Ninja Gold Standard Pollster times two.

Arizona: Trump +2
Florida: Tied
Georgia: Trump +2
Ohio: Trump +4
Pennsylvania: Trump +1

https://x.com/SwannMarcus89/status/1840192309033353313

Let me just share a couple of things about this so called "America's most accurate pollster". Below is their 2020 national poll methods per Roper Center. Not much different to what a lot of other pollster are doing. However, if you look at the polling microdata also in Roper
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The unweighted result is Trump 66% Biden 33% (!!!). Recall 2016 vote is 70% Trump 30% Clinton. The weights are doing A LOT of work here!
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On one hand, that's good: they are doing what they are supposed to be doing. On the other hand, if your sample data is usually THAT skewed that you are relying that much in the weights, that can be very problematic if for any given race the weights don't manage to correct that.
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Another thing is that they like to claim how accurate they are, but they seem to carefully cherry-pick the polls and metrics they used for that. Take the Puerto Rico PNP Primaries, for example. Their estimates were the exact opposite of the results! They mentioned no word of that
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Finally, my main issue is that they don't disclosed much info about their methods, especially sample selection and weighting. And I've been trying to get that for about 4 years now. Once they claimed it's proprietary and I get that, but in this field, transparency is key.
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Anyhow, I'm not saying they are doing anything particularly malicious or wrong, but until they are more transparent with their methods, I'd take with a grain of salt their polls and any claim of being "the most accurate pollster". A single cycle is not also enough for that.

https://x.com/rnishimura/status/1808189524209815915