2012-06-26, 03:57
#1
Det psts i alla fall i den hr artikeln som jag nyss lste:
Turkiet r just nu ett land med god ekonomisk tillvxt och p god vg att varva sina kusiner i vst, grekerna. Kommer den kurdiska "bomben" att p lngre sikt stta krokben fr den turkiska dynamon?
Man kan ocks frga sig hur detta pverkar Israel - som verkar p god fot med PKK etc. Kommer Turkiet bli mer Israel-vnligt i framtiden?
Citat:
Hela artikeln hr: http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/3377...s.htm?page=all
Turkey is emerging as an economic superpower in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East with greater influence in regional politics. Promoting itself as a model Muslim democracy, and widely admired by other Middle Eastern nations, Turkey now faces a novel problem that Europe has long contended with: a falling birth rate.
Since the 1990s, Turkeys fertility rate has steadily declined, due to, among other factors, rising household incomes, expanded access to higher education for women and increased birth control practices.
The use of birth-control methods has increased in Turkey a lot, but that is not the only reason for the decline in population, an obstetrician named Kağan Kocatepe told Hrriyet Daily News, a Turkish newspaper.
Many women want to have a successful career. Thats why the maternity age has increased, as women have started giving birth to their first child in their 30s.
Indeed, Dr. İsmet Ko, a demographer at Hacettepe University in Ankara, warned that Turkey's fertility rate is now below 2.1, the replacement level, which suggests the population will eventually decline.
The fertility level in more prosperous western Turkey is now about 1.5 -- roughly the same as in western Europe.
The number of children produced by the average Turkish woman has plunged to two from three over just the past two decades, coincident with Turkey's rise as an economic power.
But there is a wrinkle to this whole phenomenon.
The Kurdish community of Turkey, which currently represents at least 15 percent of the population and dominates the southeastern region, has such a high birth rate, that some observers most prominently Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan -- believe Kurds could become a majority in Turkey within two generations.
The proposed scenario is somewhat similar to the Palestinian situation in Israel, where Arabs could become the dominant ethnic group in the 'Jewish State' within 30 years or so; or the southwestern United States, where Hispanics and Mexican-Americans are likely to become the majority within a few decades.
According to Turkish government statistics, the average Kurdish woman in Turkey gives birth to about four children, more than double the rate for other Turkish mothers.
Thus, Turkey is facing a demographic time-bomb Kurds, who tend to be concentrated in the country's impoverished southeast and are generally poorer and less educated, could conceivably outnumber Turks within about 30 years should present patterns persist.
Erdogan seems to be certain this will happen.
"If we continue the existing trend, [the year] 2038 will mark disaster for us," Erdogan warned in May 2010.
The prime minister, who has repeatedly called on Turkish couples to have three children and even suggested financially rewarding such fecundity, once declared: Our population is getting older. Right now we are proud of our young population, but if we dont pull these numbers up, Turkey will be in a difficult position by 2038.
Since the 1990s, Turkeys fertility rate has steadily declined, due to, among other factors, rising household incomes, expanded access to higher education for women and increased birth control practices.
The use of birth-control methods has increased in Turkey a lot, but that is not the only reason for the decline in population, an obstetrician named Kağan Kocatepe told Hrriyet Daily News, a Turkish newspaper.
Many women want to have a successful career. Thats why the maternity age has increased, as women have started giving birth to their first child in their 30s.
Indeed, Dr. İsmet Ko, a demographer at Hacettepe University in Ankara, warned that Turkey's fertility rate is now below 2.1, the replacement level, which suggests the population will eventually decline.
The fertility level in more prosperous western Turkey is now about 1.5 -- roughly the same as in western Europe.
The number of children produced by the average Turkish woman has plunged to two from three over just the past two decades, coincident with Turkey's rise as an economic power.
But there is a wrinkle to this whole phenomenon.
The Kurdish community of Turkey, which currently represents at least 15 percent of the population and dominates the southeastern region, has such a high birth rate, that some observers most prominently Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan -- believe Kurds could become a majority in Turkey within two generations.
The proposed scenario is somewhat similar to the Palestinian situation in Israel, where Arabs could become the dominant ethnic group in the 'Jewish State' within 30 years or so; or the southwestern United States, where Hispanics and Mexican-Americans are likely to become the majority within a few decades.
According to Turkish government statistics, the average Kurdish woman in Turkey gives birth to about four children, more than double the rate for other Turkish mothers.
Thus, Turkey is facing a demographic time-bomb Kurds, who tend to be concentrated in the country's impoverished southeast and are generally poorer and less educated, could conceivably outnumber Turks within about 30 years should present patterns persist.
Erdogan seems to be certain this will happen.
"If we continue the existing trend, [the year] 2038 will mark disaster for us," Erdogan warned in May 2010.
The prime minister, who has repeatedly called on Turkish couples to have three children and even suggested financially rewarding such fecundity, once declared: Our population is getting older. Right now we are proud of our young population, but if we dont pull these numbers up, Turkey will be in a difficult position by 2038.
Turkiet r just nu ett land med god ekonomisk tillvxt och p god vg att varva sina kusiner i vst, grekerna. Kommer den kurdiska "bomben" att p lngre sikt stta krokben fr den turkiska dynamon?
Man kan ocks frga sig hur detta pverkar Israel - som verkar p god fot med PKK etc. Kommer Turkiet bli mer Israel-vnligt i framtiden?
)
