https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/the-permian-basin
The most crucial development in global oil markets is depletion in the Permian basin.
We first warned about this in 2018, predicting the Permian would peak in 2025. In retrospect, our analysis was too conservative. We now believe the basin could peak within the next twelve months. The implications will be as profound as when United States oil production peaked in 1970, starting a chain of events ultimately sending prices up five-fold over ten years. If we are correct, this could not come at a worse time for oil markets: inventories are tight, production in the rest of the world is declining, and investors are incredibly complacent.
If we are correct, the age of shale growth is now behind us, and the reality of Hubberts Peak is at hand. The immense growth of the shales over the past decade has blinded many analysts to the declining trends in global conventional production. That luxury is about to end.